It is interesting to speculate on the future of the Ashkenazim Sephardim split.
The worlds Jews consists of two large and many very small populations. The large ones are in Israel and North America (I am including Canada here).
In North America, the Jewish population is largely Ashkenazic. But, it is now experiencing a significant admixture with other North American populations via intermarriage. There is also a large and still growing Haredi population. Not many secular Jews will join them, and not a lot of them will leave their communities. But, every Secular Jew's ancestors were traditional. There is more leakage out of the Orthodox community than they let on.
The difference between North America and other environments where Jews have lived is that there is little pressure from the outside keeping people in. OTOH, there is not much reward for defecting.
There is also substantial two way linkage with Israel. There are many Israelis who move to the US and many American Jews who move to Israel.
In Israel, the various communities will blend with perhaps some Haredi holdouts. The existence of separate Rabbinates has been a purely political function. Its relevance was damaged by the last election/government formation. I suspect that if Netanyahu is truly done, the religious parties will lose their grip on power and the secular majority will move to clip the wings of the Rabbinates.
My guess is that the various ancestral communities in Isreal will meld over the next few generations.
Genetically. The two communities will look very different. The Israeli community will be a mix of Middle Eastern and European components. The North American Community will be much more European with substantial admixture from European descended non-Jewish North Americans.
My guess is that the religious cultures will tend to converge. North Americans will appeal to Israelis because of the "cool" factor. But, North Americans will regard Israelis as more authentic.
My view is that in 100 or so years, the main division will be Diaspora / Israeli.
In Israel, outside of the haredim, the the Ashkenazi / Sephardic / Mizrahi distinction will disappear. The communities are already merging and the process will only scale up.
In North America, most Jews will be Orthodox / Haredi. Intermarriage is too easy and Reform / Conservatives Judaism has become mostly a social movement masquerading as a religion. Some intermarriages will stay in the fold (I have seen this in my generation), but it will be a small amount. Maybe in 200 years, Razib Khan VI will add another arrow on to the chart above for the admixture from mostly European, but also Asian, populations in North America. :)
I agree with you about Israel, but I don't agree about the US/North America. I have been hearing from various Orthodox people that non-Orthodox Judaism will disappear in just a few years now. That there are no 4th generation Reform Jews. My grandchildren are 6th generation Reform Jews. I think there are a number of stable non-orthodox positions in American society and that there will continue to be a large number of non-Orthodox Jews for the foreseeable.
Mazel Tov! I also hope to reach the goal of Jewish grandchildren one day.
I hope you are right about the continuation of non-Orthodox. I was raised Soviet atheist and my reintroduction was to Reform. We sent our kids to the local Reform temple and I hated it. Politics was intertwined with everything. "Tikkum olam" my ass. At some point, we joined the local Chabad and I love it. Just religion...
I am sorry about your experience with that Reform Rabbi. Most of them are liberal, that is true, and it is also true of their congregants. But, most of them do not make everything political. My kids had good experiences. They were also very active in BBYO. It stuck.
OTOH, the local Chabad Rabbi is so smarmy that I have to take a shower after I shake his hand. YMMV
Unfortunately, the rabbi was ok -- the problem was the national organization. The final straw for me was the capstone of my son's confirmation year was a social justice trip to DC. As a result about half of the confirmation graduation speakers confidently told the audience that the Hebrew G-d is a proponent of gun control and transgender bathrooms (this was pre-Trump). Now, I don't have an issue with the latter, but having read most of the Tanakh, I was pretty confident the speakers were most likely incorrect about the former. I started looking for alternatives after that.
Excellent as always. I very much like and agree with the ESS analogy. On a somewhat related note, I highly recommend: The Chosen Few: How Education Shaped Jewish History.
The thesis being that the small size of Jews is a self selecting process whereby common required literacy among Jewish men led to a small artisan / merchant / banker popualtion.
I was going to suggest that book. I read it. I am always uncomfortable with monocausal explanations for long stretches of history, but I think it is worth considering.
The authors had the habit of trying to explain what happened to those Jews who did not keep up or to those who lived in urban areas as assimilation. I am not sure they have accounted for available genomic information.
My guess is that lines died out. I think Italy's transition form Classical Rome to Medieval shows that is a real possibility. Especially when we are considering urban populations that, in pre-modern conditions, tended to be demographic sinks.
This raises another issue. Jews have tended to be commercial and urban people for most of the times and places during the Common or Christian Era (speaking of a numbering system here folks, not a civilizational signifyer). Why didn't they disappear in the urban demographic sink. Prosperity? Habits?
I think the existence of the Jewish communities of India vs the kaifeng Jews casts an interesting light on the civilizational differences between China and India.
In India the entire society was structure around endogamous ethnic groups. My understanding of the Bene Israel was that were regarded as just another cast group (The Saturday Oil Pressers) in the Maharashtra area. We could imagine that their position would have remained stable in the absence of the European creation of Bombay and the subsequent disruption.
Great post. I met a Cochin Jew in Israel a few years ago. Their Hebrew was way better than mine- makes sense, they had been born there.
Quite powerful to think that all these different Jewish groups, so long separated, have been reunited in Israel. Wonderful in some ways, but I'm guessing it will lead to less cultural diversity in the medium and long term. As you allude to, much distinct local Jewish tradition has already been subsumed into Ashekanzi and Sephardic.
Razib: I think you could sell these essays to Commentary Magazine.
It is interesting to speculate on the future of the Ashkenazim Sephardim split.
The worlds Jews consists of two large and many very small populations. The large ones are in Israel and North America (I am including Canada here).
In North America, the Jewish population is largely Ashkenazic. But, it is now experiencing a significant admixture with other North American populations via intermarriage. There is also a large and still growing Haredi population. Not many secular Jews will join them, and not a lot of them will leave their communities. But, every Secular Jew's ancestors were traditional. There is more leakage out of the Orthodox community than they let on.
The difference between North America and other environments where Jews have lived is that there is little pressure from the outside keeping people in. OTOH, there is not much reward for defecting.
There is also substantial two way linkage with Israel. There are many Israelis who move to the US and many American Jews who move to Israel.
In Israel, the various communities will blend with perhaps some Haredi holdouts. The existence of separate Rabbinates has been a purely political function. Its relevance was damaged by the last election/government formation. I suspect that if Netanyahu is truly done, the religious parties will lose their grip on power and the secular majority will move to clip the wings of the Rabbinates.
My guess is that the various ancestral communities in Isreal will meld over the next few generations.
Genetically. The two communities will look very different. The Israeli community will be a mix of Middle Eastern and European components. The North American Community will be much more European with substantial admixture from European descended non-Jewish North Americans.
My guess is that the religious cultures will tend to converge. North Americans will appeal to Israelis because of the "cool" factor. But, North Americans will regard Israelis as more authentic.
My view is that in 100 or so years, the main division will be Diaspora / Israeli.
In Israel, outside of the haredim, the the Ashkenazi / Sephardic / Mizrahi distinction will disappear. The communities are already merging and the process will only scale up.
In North America, most Jews will be Orthodox / Haredi. Intermarriage is too easy and Reform / Conservatives Judaism has become mostly a social movement masquerading as a religion. Some intermarriages will stay in the fold (I have seen this in my generation), but it will be a small amount. Maybe in 200 years, Razib Khan VI will add another arrow on to the chart above for the admixture from mostly European, but also Asian, populations in North America. :)
I agree with you about Israel, but I don't agree about the US/North America. I have been hearing from various Orthodox people that non-Orthodox Judaism will disappear in just a few years now. That there are no 4th generation Reform Jews. My grandchildren are 6th generation Reform Jews. I think there are a number of stable non-orthodox positions in American society and that there will continue to be a large number of non-Orthodox Jews for the foreseeable.
Mazel Tov! I also hope to reach the goal of Jewish grandchildren one day.
I hope you are right about the continuation of non-Orthodox. I was raised Soviet atheist and my reintroduction was to Reform. We sent our kids to the local Reform temple and I hated it. Politics was intertwined with everything. "Tikkum olam" my ass. At some point, we joined the local Chabad and I love it. Just religion...
I am sorry about your experience with that Reform Rabbi. Most of them are liberal, that is true, and it is also true of their congregants. But, most of them do not make everything political. My kids had good experiences. They were also very active in BBYO. It stuck.
OTOH, the local Chabad Rabbi is so smarmy that I have to take a shower after I shake his hand. YMMV
Against Tikkun Olam as a political slogan:
https://www.commentary.org/articles/hillel-halkin/how-not-to-repair-the-world/
Btw, thank you for the commentary article
Unfortunately, the rabbi was ok -- the problem was the national organization. The final straw for me was the capstone of my son's confirmation year was a social justice trip to DC. As a result about half of the confirmation graduation speakers confidently told the audience that the Hebrew G-d is a proponent of gun control and transgender bathrooms (this was pre-Trump). Now, I don't have an issue with the latter, but having read most of the Tanakh, I was pretty confident the speakers were most likely incorrect about the former. I started looking for alternatives after that.
Excellent as always. I very much like and agree with the ESS analogy. On a somewhat related note, I highly recommend: The Chosen Few: How Education Shaped Jewish History.
https://www.amazon.com/Chosen-Few-Education-Princeton-Economic/dp/0691144877
The thesis being that the small size of Jews is a self selecting process whereby common required literacy among Jewish men led to a small artisan / merchant / banker popualtion.
I was going to suggest that book. I read it. I am always uncomfortable with monocausal explanations for long stretches of history, but I think it is worth considering.
The authors had the habit of trying to explain what happened to those Jews who did not keep up or to those who lived in urban areas as assimilation. I am not sure they have accounted for available genomic information.
My guess is that lines died out. I think Italy's transition form Classical Rome to Medieval shows that is a real possibility. Especially when we are considering urban populations that, in pre-modern conditions, tended to be demographic sinks.
This raises another issue. Jews have tended to be commercial and urban people for most of the times and places during the Common or Christian Era (speaking of a numbering system here folks, not a civilizational signifyer). Why didn't they disappear in the urban demographic sink. Prosperity? Habits?
Great article, as always.
Interesting, I always thought Italian Jews (at least the Italkim) were the precursors to the Ashkenazim.
I think the existence of the Jewish communities of India vs the kaifeng Jews casts an interesting light on the civilizational differences between China and India.
In India the entire society was structure around endogamous ethnic groups. My understanding of the Bene Israel was that were regarded as just another cast group (The Saturday Oil Pressers) in the Maharashtra area. We could imagine that their position would have remained stable in the absence of the European creation of Bombay and the subsequent disruption.
Too fast there. Kaifeng, OTOH, demonstrates the remarkable power of Sinic civilization to assimilate every one to the dominant Han ethnos.
Great post. I met a Cochin Jew in Israel a few years ago. Their Hebrew was way better than mine- makes sense, they had been born there.
Quite powerful to think that all these different Jewish groups, so long separated, have been reunited in Israel. Wonderful in some ways, but I'm guessing it will lead to less cultural diversity in the medium and long term. As you allude to, much distinct local Jewish tradition has already been subsumed into Ashekanzi and Sephardic.