It is interesting to speculate on the future of the Ashkenazim Sephardim split.
The worlds Jews consists of two large and many very small populations. The large ones are in Israel and North America (I am including Canada here).
In North America, the Jewish population is largely Ashkenazic. But, it is now experiencing a significant admixture with other North American populations via intermarriage. There is also a large and still growing Haredi population. Not many secular Jews will join them, and not a lot of them will leave their communities. But, every Secular Jew's ancestors were traditional. There is more leakage out of the Orthodox community than they let on.
The difference between North America and other environments where Jews have lived is that there is little pressure from the outside keeping people in. OTOH, there is not much reward for defecting.
There is also substantial two way linkage with Israel. There are many Israelis who move to the US and many American Jews who move to Israel.
In Israel, the various communities will blend with perhaps some Haredi holdouts. The existence of separate Rabbinates has been a purely political function. Its relevance was damaged by the last election/government formation. I suspect that if Netanyahu is truly done, the religious parties will lose their grip on power and the secular majority will move to clip the wings of the Rabbinates.
My guess is that the various ancestral communities in Isreal will meld over the next few generations.
Genetically. The two communities will look very different. The Israeli community will be a mix of Middle Eastern and European components. The North American Community will be much more European with substantial admixture from European descended non-Jewish North Americans.
My guess is that the religious cultures will tend to converge. North Americans will appeal to Israelis because of the "cool" factor. But, North Americans will regard Israelis as more authentic.
Excellent as always. I very much like and agree with the ESS analogy. On a somewhat related note, I highly recommend: The Chosen Few: How Education Shaped Jewish History.
The thesis being that the small size of Jews is a self selecting process whereby common required literacy among Jewish men led to a small artisan / merchant / banker popualtion.
I think the existence of the Jewish communities of India vs the kaifeng Jews casts an interesting light on the civilizational differences between China and India.
In India the entire society was structure around endogamous ethnic groups. My understanding of the Bene Israel was that were regarded as just another cast group (The Saturday Oil Pressers) in the Maharashtra area. We could imagine that their position would have remained stable in the absence of the European creation of Bombay and the subsequent disruption.
Great post. I met a Cochin Jew in Israel a few years ago. Their Hebrew was way better than mine- makes sense, they had been born there.
Quite powerful to think that all these different Jewish groups, so long separated, have been reunited in Israel. Wonderful in some ways, but I'm guessing it will lead to less cultural diversity in the medium and long term. As you allude to, much distinct local Jewish tradition has already been subsumed into Ashekanzi and Sephardic.
Razib: I think you could sell these essays to Commentary Magazine.
It is interesting to speculate on the future of the Ashkenazim Sephardim split.
The worlds Jews consists of two large and many very small populations. The large ones are in Israel and North America (I am including Canada here).
In North America, the Jewish population is largely Ashkenazic. But, it is now experiencing a significant admixture with other North American populations via intermarriage. There is also a large and still growing Haredi population. Not many secular Jews will join them, and not a lot of them will leave their communities. But, every Secular Jew's ancestors were traditional. There is more leakage out of the Orthodox community than they let on.
The difference between North America and other environments where Jews have lived is that there is little pressure from the outside keeping people in. OTOH, there is not much reward for defecting.
There is also substantial two way linkage with Israel. There are many Israelis who move to the US and many American Jews who move to Israel.
In Israel, the various communities will blend with perhaps some Haredi holdouts. The existence of separate Rabbinates has been a purely political function. Its relevance was damaged by the last election/government formation. I suspect that if Netanyahu is truly done, the religious parties will lose their grip on power and the secular majority will move to clip the wings of the Rabbinates.
My guess is that the various ancestral communities in Isreal will meld over the next few generations.
Genetically. The two communities will look very different. The Israeli community will be a mix of Middle Eastern and European components. The North American Community will be much more European with substantial admixture from European descended non-Jewish North Americans.
My guess is that the religious cultures will tend to converge. North Americans will appeal to Israelis because of the "cool" factor. But, North Americans will regard Israelis as more authentic.
Excellent as always. I very much like and agree with the ESS analogy. On a somewhat related note, I highly recommend: The Chosen Few: How Education Shaped Jewish History.
https://www.amazon.com/Chosen-Few-Education-Princeton-Economic/dp/0691144877
The thesis being that the small size of Jews is a self selecting process whereby common required literacy among Jewish men led to a small artisan / merchant / banker popualtion.
Great article, as always.
Interesting, I always thought Italian Jews (at least the Italkim) were the precursors to the Ashkenazim.
I think the existence of the Jewish communities of India vs the kaifeng Jews casts an interesting light on the civilizational differences between China and India.
In India the entire society was structure around endogamous ethnic groups. My understanding of the Bene Israel was that were regarded as just another cast group (The Saturday Oil Pressers) in the Maharashtra area. We could imagine that their position would have remained stable in the absence of the European creation of Bombay and the subsequent disruption.
Great post. I met a Cochin Jew in Israel a few years ago. Their Hebrew was way better than mine- makes sense, they had been born there.
Quite powerful to think that all these different Jewish groups, so long separated, have been reunited in Israel. Wonderful in some ways, but I'm guessing it will lead to less cultural diversity in the medium and long term. As you allude to, much distinct local Jewish tradition has already been subsumed into Ashekanzi and Sephardic.